Cover
Volume 7, Special Issue 5 (2026)

Published: September 30, 2026

Pages: 345-354

Research Article

The impact of poverty and inequality on sustainable development in Iraq: The ARDL Model for the period 2015–2023

Hayder A. K. Alfatlawi 1 Wasan K. A. Alsaedi 1
1Local Administration, Karbala Governorate, Iraq
History
  • Received: July 26, 2026
  • Accepted: August 28, 2026
  • Available Online: September 30, 2026
DOI

https://doi.org/10.56967/ejfb2026973

Abstract

Despite Iraq's vast natural resources and its adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015, poverty rates remain high and income inequality widens. This reflects the limited capacity of the Iraqi economy to translate economic growth into tangible improvements in welfare and human development. This raises questions about the nature and extent of the short- and long-term impact of poverty and income inequality on the path to sustainable development. This study aimed to analyze the impact of poverty and income inequality on sustainable development in Iraq, as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), during the period 2015–2023. The study employed a descriptive, analytical, quantitative approach using annual time series data. The Autoregressive Distributed Limiting (ARDL) model was applied due to its suitability for the data type, small sample size, and ability to handle mixed integration ranks. Unit root tests, bounds tests, and diagnostic tests were conducted to verify the model's validity and stability. The study's findings revealed a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty, income inequality, and human development in Iraq, with statistically significant effects of these two variables on the long-term Human Development Index (HDI). Furthermore, the ECM error correction model demonstrated short-term dynamics and a gradual adjustment towards long-term equilibrium, confirming that poverty and income inequality constitute structural obstacles to achieving sustainable development. The study recommends adopting integrated economic and social policies to reduce poverty, ensure equitable income distribution, improve the efficiency of public spending in education and health, and strengthen economic governance in Iraq.

Keywords

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