Search Results for ardl-model

Abstract

Developing countries in general and Arab countries in particular suffer from high population growth, and that these population increases exert a great influence and pressure on the available economic and financial resources, This leads to imbalances in the structure of society, which may be accompanied by a kind of inequality and demolition in the value system of those societies, if it is not accompanied by an increase in investment and employment and the creation of new incomes that are redistributed in a way that reduces social differences, increases the domestic product and then economic growth . The study aims to measure the effect of the relationship between population growth and economic growth by using the (ARDL) model. The study concluded that the effect of population growth is positive on economic growth during the study period. The study recommends giving attention to the labor force and employing it in the production process in a way that reduces societal disparities and enhances economic growth.

Abstract

Despite Iraq's vast natural resources and its adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015, poverty rates remain high and income inequality widens. This reflects the limited capacity of the Iraqi economy to translate economic growth into tangible improvements in welfare and human development. This raises questions about the nature and extent of the short- and long-term impact of poverty and income inequality on the path to sustainable development. This study aimed to analyze the impact of poverty and income inequality on sustainable development in Iraq, as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), during the period 2015–2023. The study employed a descriptive, analytical, quantitative approach using annual time series data. The Autoregressive Distributed Limiting (ARDL) model was applied due to its suitability for the data type, small sample size, and ability to handle mixed integration ranks. Unit root tests, bounds tests, and diagnostic tests were conducted to verify the model's validity and stability. The study's findings revealed a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty, income inequality, and human development in Iraq, with statistically significant effects of these two variables on the long-term Human Development Index (HDI). Furthermore, the ECM error correction model demonstrated short-term dynamics and a gradual adjustment towards long-term equilibrium, confirming that poverty and income inequality constitute structural obstacles to achieving sustainable development. The study recommends adopting integrated economic and social policies to reduce poverty, ensure equitable income distribution, improve the efficiency of public spending in education and health, and strengthen economic governance in Iraq.

Abstract

Despite Iraq's vast natural resources and its adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015, poverty rates remain high and income inequality widens. This reflects the limited capacity of the Iraqi economy to translate economic growth into tangible improvements in welfare and human development. This raises questions about the nature and extent of the short- and long-term impact of poverty and income inequality on the path to sustainable development. This study aimed to analyze the impact of poverty and income inequality on sustainable development in Iraq, as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), during the period 2015–2023. The study employed a descriptive, analytical, quantitative approach using annual time series data. The Autoregressive Distributed Limiting (ARDL) model was applied due to its suitability for the data type, small sample size, and ability to handle mixed integration ranks. Unit root tests, bounds tests, and diagnostic tests were conducted to verify the model's validity and stability. The study's findings revealed a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty, income inequality, and human development in Iraq, with statistically significant effects of these two variables on the long-term Human Development Index (HDI). Furthermore, the ECM error correction model demonstrated short-term dynamics and a gradual adjustment towards long-term equilibrium, confirming that poverty and income inequality constitute structural obstacles to achieving sustainable development. The study recommends adopting integrated economic and social policies to reduce poverty, ensure equitable income distribution, improve the efficiency of public spending in education and health, and strengthen economic governance in Iraq.

Abstract

The aim of this research is to assess the impact of electronic payments on increasing the volume of deposits in the Iraqi banking sector for the time period (January 2018 – September 2025), using an econometric analytical method that includes descriptive time-series analysis, and estimation of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study uses the indicators of mobile electronic payments and financial transactions processed via the retail payment system (IRPSI) as the independent variables, and the total deposits and current deposits as dependent variables, with the control variables being the money supply, inflation, and oil prices. The results show the gradual growth of the use of electronic payment instruments, especially in terms of the retail payment system, while mobile payments have a limited impact; current deposits are the most significant factor in total deposits. The estimates derived in ARDL show that there is no significant relationship between mobile payments and deposits in the short and long run, while retail payment system transactions have a significant and negative relationship due to its strong relationship with cash withdrawals, particularly cash withdrawals by government salary. The results shown in the control variables indicate that money supply and oil price are important factors in increasing deposits while inflation decreases current deposits because of the loss of purchasing power. Overall, the results indicate that while the electronic payment system is still evolving in Iraq, the use of cash remains at a high level, which necessitates further efforts to boost and reinforce the non-cash payment policy, increase financial and digital awareness, and strengthen the technical systems to promote the efficiency of electronic payment systems and their ability to contribute effectively to the mobilization of deposits within the banking sector.

Abstract

Research and studies related to electronic payments and the indicators of the Iraq Stock Exchange hold significant importance as they represent one of the fundamental elements contributing to economic progress. This research aims to measure the impact of electronic payments on the trading volume index in the Iraq Stock Exchange. To achieve this goal, the unit root will be tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test, and cointegration will be tested using the) ARDL (model according to the outputs of the) Eviews13(econometric software. The research concluded that there is a positive relationship between electronic payment indicators (amounts of electronic checks, value of bank transfers, retail payment system transfers) and the trading volume index in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The research recommends enhancing online electronic trading to help investors quickly identify trading indicators and stock prices of listed companies, which leads to increased trading activity in the Iraq Stock Exchange. This can be achieved by organizing workshops and educational seminars to provide detailed information on modern technologies used in the market

Abstract

 In many economic relations, there are correlations between variables that affect each other, including the reciprocal relationship between the budget deficit and exchange rate fluctuations, especially in developing countries, including Iraq, which suffer from problems in the general budget that may be chronic, and this deficit is caused by continuing In increasing public expenditures in exchange for a decrease in public revenues, especially that the Iraqi economy is almost completely dependent on the oil sector, And due to the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the volume of imports, which negatively affected the state’s general budget, the study included three main sections. The first topic represents the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and the public budget deficit, and the second topic is the relationship between the exchange rate and the general budget deficit in Iraq for the period (1990-2019). While the third topic dealt with the standard analysis of the relationship between the two variables mentioned above, the study concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship between the two variables of the model, where the exchange rate is due to a deficit in the public budget in the long term

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the content of the theoretical relationship between fiscal policy and the public budget deficit by defining the concept, types and tools of fiscal policy on the one hand, and the concept and types of public budget deficit and methods of financing it on the other hand, as well as building a measurement model to study and analyze the effectiveness of these tools in financing public budget deficits for selected advanced countries during the period (2002-2019), and through the use of modern economic measurement tools within the software (Stata 14.2 & EViews 12) and using the (Panel Data) data collection method, a (CD-Test) test for cross-sections was conducted as an initial step to determine the tests that will be used In order to find out the static of the variables and whether they fall within the tests of the first or second generation, and after making sure that there is no reliability between the cross-sections, the Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC) test was used, If its results showed that some variables have a unit root, that is, some variables are stationary in the level and others are stationary in the first difference, and accordingly, this will lead us to include these variables in the model, and we will have a dynamic model, and in this case we will deal with the models of temporal slowdown and the best example On that, it is the auto-regressive distributed lag model for dynamic panel data model (Dynamic Panel ARDL Model) and with its three estimators, which are the mean group estimator (MGE), pooled mean group estimator (PMGE) and the dynamic fixed effects estimator (DFEE). The Husman Test has been used. In order to differentiate between the three capabilities; The test showed that the combined group mean estimator (PMGE) is the best. The Husman Test was used to compare the three estimators; The test showed that the pooled group mean estimator (PMGE) is the best.

Abstract

        The international country risk guide referred to the possibility of analyzing a country's political risks using variables that included certain common or differentiated political characteristics that could become an identifiable characteristic of that country. The goal of analyzing such risks is to provide a method for quantifying and monitoring their consequences through multiple variables, including, but not limited to, the performance of financial markets. Such evaluation can be accomplished by assigning risk scores to a group of factors known as political risk elements, and despite the large size of the effects of these risks on market performance (sectors and companies), some parties avoid, ignore, or even include insufficient estimates that do not reflect their significance. As a result, the research problem focused on the idea that such levels of political risk might have a significant positive or negative impact on the performance indicators of the Iraq Stock Exchange. The ARDL model was used in the study to determine the direction and strength of the influence on the research sample. The study uncovered several results, the most important of which was that the voting process and accountability connected to the army's intervention in politics, accountability, and democracy were among the most influential explanatory factors for the two models.

Abstract

The research aims towards measuring the impact of the development of the banking industry on sustainable development, especially after the development of the banking industry in recent years and the transition to digital banking services that have      achieved great profits for the banking industry     by applying it to the Iraqi banking industry during the period                                                                              

 (2004-2020), using the ARDL model, where the research deals with measuring the impact of the development of the banking industry represented by the independent variables (credit provided to the private sector to GDP,                                                                                                                                  

Total deposits to GDP, and money supply to GDP) on sustainable development, which is achieved through key indicators, which are economic indicators, social indicators, environmental indicators, and institutional indicators, where these approved variables were expressed through indicators (per capita GDP, population ratio in regions urbanization, change in forest area, spending on research and development), and the research concluded the great developmental role of the banking industry to achieve sustainable development as well as the need to develop and provide credit for modern projects that support clean energy and green environment                                                                                             

Abstract

The study aimed to identify the impact of financial policy tools in achieving economic growth and to show the most important causes and factors of imbalances in the performance of financial policies in Sudan. The problem of the study was mainly represented in the financial imbalance represented by the deficit in the general budget resulting from the huge difference between public revenues and public expenditures, in addition to the ineffectiveness of financial policy tools, which led to an excessive expansion in printing more new money, and this led to a rise in the general level of prices (inflation), which was reflected in the slowdown in economic growth rates, The importance of the study stems from the urgent and pressing need to research this modern topic and the fact that its results and recommendations are of benefit to researchers, academics and decision-makers, The study followed the descriptive analytical approach, the historical approach, the inductive approach, and the statistical approach, The study came out with a number of results, the most important of which are: The results of estimating the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in the long run showed the existence of statistically significant relationships between GDP growth and each of taxes, public spending, and public debt. It became clear that both public revenues (taxes) and public spending have significant and positive effects on economic growth in the long run, The study presented a number of recommendations, including: the necessity of enhancing the growth of the gross domestic product and making it high and sustainable by increasing production and productivity of the economic sectors (agricultural, industrial, service) Expanding and diversifying the tax base to increase public revenues, meet the increase in public spending, and control and rationalize government spending so as not to create a large deficit in the general budget Public debt management is being pursued in two parallel directions: the first is to find optimal ways to repay the debt, while not resorting to indebtedness except when absolutely necessary, and the second is to reach the point of completion in accordance with the HIPC initiative.

Abstract

Quarterly data were used, with (48) views, and a research problem was posed: Are the expected digital contributions to raising levels of financial inclusion addressed through the quality of digital financial services provided to a sample of the Arab countries under study for the period 2011-2022? The aim of study to shed light on the most important concepts, basics and emergence of financial digitization and financial inclusion, specifically the quality dimension and the extent to which it is affected by some indicators of financial digitization and attempt to disentangle some of the closely related concepts, as well as building a quantitative model capable of clarifying the size, impact and analysis of some indicators of financial digitization represented in (the procedure Or receiving digital payments for those in secondary education +15MPS, making or receiving digital payments for those in primary education or less (MRE), creating digital payments for adults over 25 years of age (MRA), creating digital payments for youth between 15-24 years of age (MRB), in the dependent variable represented by: , Quality/Education, represented by borrowing for health purposes (BHP), and Quality/Age, represented by the number of inactive accounts +15 NIA) by explaining its impact on the financial inclusion dimension (quality(

The ARDL model using the statistical program (Eviews 10) showed that there is a and (significant relationship) between the indicators of financial digitization and financial inclusion, represented by the quality dimension and the models that were tested and based on the global financial inclusion database The Global Findex Database 2021. study reached a set of Conclusions and proposals: Perhaps the most important of them is that the results of the short-term tests were consistent with the long-term results for the two variables with the same interpretation. The compatibility may also be due to financial theory and that those who are younger within this classification have new trends and care by parents for financial awareness and financial knowledge.

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the basic sectors of any country's economy. It is of great importance in developing economic relations between countries worldwide, especially developed and developing countries, through the import and export of goods and services, both visible and invisible, and the movement of capital and gold trading. Foreign trade activities are usually carried out through the mechanism of linking the exchange rate of the local currency to foreign currencies. The importance of this study lies in highlighting the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. These fluctuations directly affect the economy in general and the costs of importing goods and services in particular. This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi imports for the period 2004–2023. To achieve the study objective, the study relied on time series data and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables in the long and short term. The study found a statistically significant positive relationship at the 5% level between the exchange rate and imports in the long term, which means that the rise in exchange rates in Iraq led to an increase in the volume of imports during the study period. based on these results, the study recommends the need to create a stable economic environment for the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, in addition to strengthening the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in controlling the official and parallel exchange rates to limit their negative impact on the increase in consumer imports.