Search Results for time-series

Abstract

The increase in the number of people infected with the virus around the world and the human and material losses caused by this phenomenon and the social and psychological effects it generates include all categories of society. The main purpose of studying this virus is to know ways to reduce losses and make future predictions about it.

In this research, time series (general trend equations) were used in the theoretical side and monthly data analysis on the virus (covid 19) and for the time period (2019-2020) because of the high accuracy and flexibility of these equations in analyzing the time series.

The results showed that the appropriate and efficient model is the quadratic model to represent the time series according to the comparison with other models.

Abstract

The study aimed to analyze indicators of financial discipline and measure the effects of those indicators on monetary stability in the Iraqi economy, based on quarterly data for a time series for the period (2004-2020), through the use of cointegration methodology and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) after Performing a time series quiescence test (KPSS). A long and positive relationship between indicators of financial discipline (debt ratio to GDP, foreign reserves and money supply to GDP) and monetary stability. The study recommended the need to adhere to the rules of financial discipline to maintain the exchange rate by increasing the domestic production base, increasing non-oil exports and reducing dependence on the currency selling window that drains foreign reserves, as well as the need to switch to (E-government), which aims to achieve financial discipline within the country, Enhancing the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and enhancing the competitiveness of non-oil sectors such as industry and agriculture in increasing Iraqi exports.

Abstract

The aim of the research is to identify the external determinants of the performance of the banking sector, represented by growth rate in gross domestic product (GGDP) and inflation (I), and the internal determinants represented by size (S), operational efficiency (OE) and financial intermediation (FM) for the period (1996 to 2017), in some of the Arabic countries represented by (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates). To reach this goal, cross-sectional time-series models (Pooled regression model, fixed effects model, random effects model) were used. These models were compared using the restricted F test and Hausman's test, and it was found that the random effects model is the appropriate model to represent the relationship between the research variables.The results of the research revealed that there was no effect of the external determinants (growth in GDP and inflation) and financial intermediation as one of the internal determinants on the performance of banking sectors, expressed in return on capital (ROE), because the relationship between these variables was not significant, in addition to the existence of a negative impact of a significant indication of the volume on the performance of the banking sectors and a positive impact with a significant effect of the operational efficiency on the performance of that sector. The research recommended the necessity for the supervisory and supervisory authorities to pay special attention to size and operational efficiency for their clear impact on the performance of the banking sectors, the research sample.

Abstract

The research includes both theoretical and practical aspects. The study aims to analyze and measure the relationship between public spending (the approved variable) and the explanatory variables in Malaysia during the time period (1990-2020) by using the Autoregressive Distributed Time Gaps (ARDL) methodology using Time Series Data during the study period. In order to achieve this goal, the theoretical aspect of public spending and its components and limits of public spending was shortened, with the presentation of the economic effects of government spending. In addition to clarifying the relationship between economic variables and public spending in Malaysia, then presenting and analyzing the results of quantitative measurement. The research reached many results, the most prominent of which was the existence of a positive significant relationship between government spending and the variables of total fixed capital formation, public debt and population. And a significant inverse relationship between the dependent variable government spending and GDP growth. As a result of these results that emerged from the standard analysis of the model, it is worthwhile for the study country to adopt ways and methods to reduce government spending rates within the limits of public revenues available to each country. The research aims to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on government spending, as well as to evaluate the behavior of government spending in Malaysia.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between financial liberalization policy and its impact on economic growth in Iraq, spanning the Period 2004-2023. Drawing on a combination of time-series econometric analysis and policy review, the research examines key dimensions of liberalization, including interest rate deregulation, capital account openness, and banking sector reform. The findings reveal a nuanced relationship: a long-term, positive relationship between the indicators (the basic interest rate, the ratio of domestic credit provided to the private sector to GDP, and inflation) and GDP in Iraq during the study period. Meanwhile, the long-term relationship was negative, as indicated by the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP. Therefore, Iraq's economic policy needs to promote greater liberalization of foreign direct investment. It is also important to adopt a balanced monetary policy that helps control inflation rates and interest rates, thus activating its positive role in financial liberalization policy 

Abstract

The study aims to achieve several objectives, the most important of which is to analyze the nature of the financing behavior adopted by business companies, by measuring the impact of financing behavior—represented by short-term debt, common stock, and retained earnings—on Economic Value Added (EVA) using the EVA model for a selected sample of business companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange during the period from 2005 to 2024. The study relied on the descriptive-analytical approach to present the theoretical and analytical aspects of the research variables, and the quantitative approach to test the research hypotheses in order to address the research problem, which revolves around the question: To what extent does financing behavior affect the Economic Value Added of industrial companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange? The study assumes a main hypothesis positing the existence of a statistically significant impact of financing behavior on the economic value of industrial companies. To test the research hypotheses, time series data and multiple linear regression analysis were employed. The results revealed a statistically significant negative impact of common stock financing on Economic Value Added, a statistically significant positive impact of retained earnings financing on Economic Value Added, and no significant impact of short-term financing on Economic Value Added.

The study concludes with a set of recommendations for financial decision-makers in the business companies of the study sample to help enhance their economic value, including: adopting an effective financing policy that ensures the optimal use of shares as a financing tool, achieving a balance between equity financing and debt financing.

Abstract

The Iraqi banking sector is working to keep pace with modern banking technologies, and with the aim of exploring the impact of electronic payment methods on the efficiency of banking performance, three standard models were built for the Iraqi banking sector, for the period (January 2018-December 2022) with monthly data, so that the number of time series observations for each model reaches (60) View.

The research found a positive impact of electronic payment methods on the financial performance of the Iraqi banking sector, by raising its level of profitability and reducing its costs, in addition to the important role played by managing its liquidity and reducing its risks. Electronic payment methods also had a negative impact on the efficiency of internal operations management through... Its inability to reduce the effort and speed in completing operations and responding to customer requirements, due to adherence to traditional methods of completing banking work and the limited use of technology for archiving, which has reinforced the episodes of red tape in banking work, and has had negative effects on the quality of banking services.     

Abstract

Given the growing public debt burden and the volatility of global oil prices — the primary source of budget revenues — this study examines the economic impact of public debt on sustainable development in Iraq from 1990 to 2022. Using modern econometric models and quarterly time series data, the research analyzes the relationship between domestic and external public debt, economic growth, and sustainable development.

The study aims to identify the short- and long-term effects of public debt on growth and sustainability and clarify how oil price volatility affects this relationship. The results indicate that domestic debt has a less negative impact than external debt. While external debt supports expenditures in the short term, it increases long-term risks due to repayment obligations. The results also indicate weak links between high debt and sustainable development outcomes, reflecting the inefficient use of borrowed resources. Heavy reliance on oil revenues exacerbates the economy's vulnerability to external shocks. The study concluded with a set of recommendations: adopt wise debt management strategies; direct borrowing toward productive and developmental sectors; enhance transparency and institutional efficiency; diversify the economy to reduce dependence on oil; and cooperate with international financial institutions to design debt sustainability policies consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Abstract

       This study aimed to measure the impact of fair value indicators (net realizable selling value, asset replacement cost, net future cash flows) on investment efficiency as measured by the market value per-share to earnings per share model and the deviation from the expected investment model. The study followed a descriptive analytical approach to interpret the relationship between its variables. The study population consisted of extractive and mining industry companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the fiscal years (2019-2023), totaling (7) companies. To analyze the data and test the hypotheses, the following statistical methods were used: (descriptive statistics, test for stationarity in time series, Durbin-Watson test, Hausman test, multiple linear regression, simple linear regression), relying on the statistical software (EViews).

       The study concluded that there is a positive impact of fair value indicators (net realizable selling value, net future cash flows) on investment efficiency as measured by the market value per-share to earnings per share model, while they had a negative impact on investment efficiency as measured by the deviation from the expected investment model. Additionally, the study found that the asset replacement cost has a positive impact on investment efficiency as measured by the deviation from the expected investment model, and a negative impact on investment efficiency as measured by the market value per-share to earnings per share model.

       Based on the results of this study, the researchers concluded with several recommendations, the most important of which were: the necessity for extractive and mining industry companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange to expand their disclosure of financial information related to fair value indicators with clarity and transparency to attract investors and gain their trust.

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the basic sectors of any country's economy. It is of great importance in developing economic relations between countries worldwide, especially developed and developing countries, through the import and export of goods and services, both visible and invisible, and the movement of capital and gold trading. Foreign trade activities are usually carried out through the mechanism of linking the exchange rate of the local currency to foreign currencies. The importance of this study lies in highlighting the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. These fluctuations directly affect the economy in general and the costs of importing goods and services in particular. This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi imports for the period 2004–2023. To achieve the study objective, the study relied on time series data and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables in the long and short term. The study found a statistically significant positive relationship at the 5% level between the exchange rate and imports in the long term, which means that the rise in exchange rates in Iraq led to an increase in the volume of imports during the study period. based on these results, the study recommends the need to create a stable economic environment for the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, in addition to strengthening the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in controlling the official and parallel exchange rates to limit their negative impact on the increase in consumer imports.

Abstract

This paper aim aims to predict the quantities of water needed in the city of Baghdad for the next 10 months. This paper focuses on potable water, based on the time series data of the water consumption phenomenon in the city, which was obtained from the Ministry of Water Resources, specifically the Baghdad Water Department. Statistical forecasting techniques were used on the monthly water consumption data for the city of January 2014 until May (2024, a total of 125 months, and that is Baghdad in the period from to reach an estimate of the quantities needed by the city of Baghdad in the future. Curve Estimation and Linear Regression forecasting techniques were used, such as linear regression analysis and the Box - Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology, to obtain the best water consumption model in the city of Baghdad and the most accurate. In This paper we concluded that it is the best model suitable for predicting monthly water consumption in Baghdad city is (3,1,1) ARIMA among the models proposed in the Box-Jenkins methodology in terms of accuracy measures and (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) which reached (2.44-MAPE).While the (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for the Simple Linear (MAPE=8) Quadratic Regression model and the Quadratic Regression model were also found, the research concluded that monthly consumption will increase in the city of Baghdad, when compared to Between the actual values ​​and the predictive values ​​of the methods used in the paper to predict the future. Finally, it is recommended to take the necessary measures to limit water consumption in the city, through pricing, awareness, education, intermittent supplies and other measures that preserve water resources and achieve sustainability.

Abstract

      The current study aimed to investigate the impact of the structure deposits on the profitability of Iraqi Islamic banks over the period from 2016 to 2022 using data of 13 banks. We employed cross-sectional time series models (panel data), including the pooled regression model, the fixed effects model, and the random effects model to analyze the impact of the deposit structure on the bank profitability.

The results indicated that the current deposits represented the largest proportion of the deposit structure in Iraqi Islamic banks. Additionally, the results revealed a negative and significant effect of the current deposit ratio on the profitability of these banks. This could be attributed to Islamic banks holding a considerable proportion of demand deposits; which could be withdrawn at any time and Islamic banks guarantee repayment of the principal deposited, and account holders do not have rights to a share in the profits. Therefore, Islamic banks usually invest only a small fraction of the current accounts.  In contrast, we found a positive and significant impact of the savings deposit ratio and the investment deposit ratio on the profitability of Iraqi Islamic banks. The study recommends that Islamic banks should adopt strategies aimed at attracting more deposits, particularly investment deposits, due to their stability and flexibility in investment. Such these deposits can be utilized for medium- and long-term investments, providing further opportunities to increase profitability.