Search Results for threshold-regression-model

Abstract

The research aimed to measure the negative impact of monetary shocks on the capital adequacy of the Iraqi banking sector for the period 2004-2022 using the Threshold Regression Model. The results of the research showed that there is an impact of the variables of monetary shocks (money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, index number). (prices) on the (banking sector capital adequacy) index. The most important findings of the research are that the banking sector capital adequacy at the threshold is less than 2.8984929 trillion. There was a positive impact of the money supply shock on the banking sector capital adequacy. However, when capital The banking sector is confined between 7.6688449 and 2.8984929, so the effect of the money supply shock on the capital adequacy of the banking sector is positive. However, in the third system, when the capital threshold is less than 11.73928 and greater than 7.6628449, there was a negative effect for both (the interest rate shock and the supply shock) at a significant level. 5%, while there was a significant positive effect of the exchange rate shock, and in the fourth system at the capital threshold greater than or equal to 11.73928, there was a negative effect of the price index shock at a significant level of 5%, while here there was a significant positive effect for both (the interest rate shock and the money supply).

Abstract

Public spending is one of the most important tools used by governments to achieve their economic and social goals, studying the relationship between public spending and inflation in Iraq is one of the important and vital topics, especially in light of the challenges facing the Iraqi economy such as oil price fluctuations and thus fluctuations in financial revenues, and the correct public spending management through which inflation rates can be monitored and controlled.

The research aimed to measure and analyze the impact of public spending on inflation in Iraq through the use of modern standard methods where the threshold model was used (Threshold Regression), as the research found that there are four thresholds during the research period, in the first threshold the relationship was positive between public spending and the inflation rate when the inflation rate is less than (3.699%), and that the increase in public spending by one unit It will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.040%) before reaching this threshold, but in the value of the second threshold of inflation and after exceeding the rate of (3.699%), it is less than (4.399%) and that increasing  public spending by one unit will also lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.216%) before reaching this threshold, while the third threshold for the inflation rate after exceeding the rate of (4.399%), which is less than (6.399%) and that Increasing public spending by one unit will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (40.26%) before reaching this threshold, while the fourth and last threshold for an inflation rate is greater than or equal to (6.399%), and that increasing public spending by one unit will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.419%) before reaching this threshold. The research concluded with a number of proposals, the most prominent of which is the need for decision-makers to follow up the levels of public spending carefully at low spending levels. There may not be a significant impact on inflation in the future, and monitoring spending at high levels, there may be a significant impact that requires arbitrary policies to prevent hyperinflation.