Search Results for simple-linear-models

Abstract

Inflation is closely associated with all macroeconomic outcomes, including investment. An increase in inflation affects investment spending, leading to its decline and pushing the economy into a state of disequilibrium. Based on officially recorded data and other factors influencing the investment environment, several elements contributed to rising inflation rates during the study period, which necessitated government intervention to reduce these rates and stabilize the economy under such conditions. Given that the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy primarily dependent on oil, this has led to fluctuations in investment and its reliance on both operational and investment expenditures. The importance of this research lies in demonstrating the impact of inflation on private investment, as well as analyzing data related to inflation and private investment. The data were obtained from the Central Statistical Organization. The study also emphasizes the adoption of policies that ensure control over inflation in order to promote economic development by providing a suitable investment environment during this critical phase of the Iraqi economy. The focus on private rather than public investment is due to the comprehensive nature of public investment across all sectors, which would expand the scope of the paper beyond its limits. Therefore, private investment was selected as a representative model, given that both types are affected by inflation. The aim of the research is to analyze and estimate the impact of inflation on investment in Iraq for the period (1990–2022) through the use of the SPSS program. A simple linear regression equation was estimated, confirming that inflation (independent variable X) has a negative effect on investment (dependent variable Y), which is consistent with economic theory. The research also aims to identify key measures through which the Iraqi economy can formulate policies and adopt necessary procedures to control inflation, as well as to provide an appropriate investment environment to attract both domestic and foreign investors. Several results were obtained, most notably the clear fluctuation in inflation rates, as shown in Table (1), due to the political events experienced by Iraq during the study period. This, in turn, led to fluctuations in private investment rates, as shown in Table (2). The study confirms that inflation is one of the most important determinants of private investment and must be addressed and mitigated in order to attract more investments, thereby promoting development and increasing economic growth rates in Iraq. As for the recommendations, the most important include implementing direct monitoring and adopting measures aimed at transforming open inflation into controlled inflation, in addition to curbing increases in prices and wages to reduce inflationary pressures and achieve balance between supply and demand. Furthermore, the study recommends encouraging investment by attracting both domestic and foreign investors. The research consists of three sections. The first section examines inflation through analysis and estimation of a simple linear model (OLS), where inflation rates are treated as the dependent variable and time as the independent variable using SPSS. The estimation results reveal clear fluctuations over the period (1990–2022) due to the events experienced by Iraq, as well as an inverse relationship between time and inflation. The second section addresses the analysis and estimation of a simple linear model for private investment, showing an inverse relationship between time and private investment. The third section studies the relationship between inflation and private investment through analysis and estimation, revealing an inverse relationship between inflation rates and private investment, which is consistent with economic theory and will be further clarified in subsequent sections. Inflation was selected among many variables affecting investment due to its strong connection with the living burdens borne by citizens.