Search Results for ols
Abstract
This research examines the economic impact of geopolitical crises on international trade by analyzing changes in trade flows and strategic commodity prices during the period 2008–2023. The study relies on data from the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and SESRIC, employing multiple econometric models including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Difference-in-Differences (DiD), and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The findings reveal that geopolitical crises such as economic sanctions, wars, and the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative effect on global trade flows, accompanied by sharp increases in oil, wheat, and natural gas prices. The study concludes that strong economic blocs, such as BRICS and the European Union, have played a crucial role in mitigating these negative effects, highlighting the importance of economic integration in addressing global disruptions.
Abstract
Inflation is closely associated with all macroeconomic outcomes, including investment. An increase in inflation affects investment spending, leading to its decline and pushing the economy into a state of disequilibrium. Based on officially recorded data and other factors influencing the investment environment, several elements contributed to rising inflation rates during the study period, which necessitated government intervention to reduce these rates and stabilize the economy under such conditions. Given that the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy primarily dependent on oil, this has led to fluctuations in investment and its reliance on both operational and investment expenditures. The importance of this research lies in demonstrating the impact of inflation on private investment, as well as analyzing data related to inflation and private investment. The data were obtained from the Central Statistical Organization. The study also emphasizes the adoption of policies that ensure control over inflation in order to promote economic development by providing a suitable investment environment during this critical phase of the Iraqi economy. The focus on private rather than public investment is due to the comprehensive nature of public investment across all sectors, which would expand the scope of the paper beyond its limits. Therefore, private investment was selected as a representative model, given that both types are affected by inflation. The aim of the research is to analyze and estimate the impact of inflation on investment in Iraq for the period (1990–2022) through the use of the SPSS program. A simple linear regression equation was estimated, confirming that inflation (independent variable X) has a negative effect on investment (dependent variable Y), which is consistent with economic theory. The research also aims to identify key measures through which the Iraqi economy can formulate policies and adopt necessary procedures to control inflation, as well as to provide an appropriate investment environment to attract both domestic and foreign investors. Several results were obtained, most notably the clear fluctuation in inflation rates, as shown in Table (1), due to the political events experienced by Iraq during the study period. This, in turn, led to fluctuations in private investment rates, as shown in Table (2). The study confirms that inflation is one of the most important determinants of private investment and must be addressed and mitigated in order to attract more investments, thereby promoting development and increasing economic growth rates in Iraq. As for the recommendations, the most important include implementing direct monitoring and adopting measures aimed at transforming open inflation into controlled inflation, in addition to curbing increases in prices and wages to reduce inflationary pressures and achieve balance between supply and demand. Furthermore, the study recommends encouraging investment by attracting both domestic and foreign investors. The research consists of three sections. The first section examines inflation through analysis and estimation of a simple linear model (OLS), where inflation rates are treated as the dependent variable and time as the independent variable using SPSS. The estimation results reveal clear fluctuations over the period (1990–2022) due to the events experienced by Iraq, as well as an inverse relationship between time and inflation. The second section addresses the analysis and estimation of a simple linear model for private investment, showing an inverse relationship between time and private investment. The third section studies the relationship between inflation and private investment through analysis and estimation, revealing an inverse relationship between inflation rates and private investment, which is consistent with economic theory and will be further clarified in subsequent sections. Inflation was selected among many variables affecting investment due to its strong connection with the living burdens borne by citizens.
Abstract
This study aims to examine the nature of the relationship between deposit structure and financial recovery in commercial banks. The sample consisted of ten Iraqi commercial banks during the period 2014–2023, and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was applied to analyze the relationship and effects among the study variables. The findings reveal that the deposit structure has a significant impact on several financial recovery indicators, namely return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), and non-performing loans (NPL). The results further indicate that both savings deposits and time deposits exerted a negative effect on ROA, reflecting the limited ability of Iraqi banks to allocate depositors’ funds efficiently and generate adequate returns. Conversely, time deposits showed a clear positive impact on ROE. In addition, all types of deposits were found to have a positive and significant effect on both NPL and CAR, suggesting that growth in deposits increases lending activities and profitability, while also being associated with higher levels of non-performing loans. The significance of this study stems from the fact that deposits represent the primary source of funding for commercial banks and account for the largest share of their resources. However, the distribution of deposits by type and maturity does not necessarily guarantee financial recovery, particularly in light of the financial, health, economic, political, and technological crises that have adversely affected the Iraqi banking sector. Accordingly, the central research question is posed: To what extent does the deposit structure contribute to strengthening the ability of Iraqi commercial banks to achieve financial recovery? The study concludes that bank managements should improve the quality of banking services and adopt both pricing and non-pricing strategies to attract more stable deposits, while directing them toward high-quality assets and investments that can enhance financial performance.