Search Results for oil-prices

Abstract

The importance of the subject in estimating the impact of sudden oil shocks over decades since the early seventies of the twentieth century until now was the motive in choosing it, and naturally when oil prices are low, this will be reflected in the government's financial decisions. The research problem revolves around dependence on oil revenues mainly and the weakness of other sectors such as agriculture in financing the government budget in Saudi Arabia, which raises the following question: It is to what extent these countries can absorb those oil shocks and contain them through an appropriate fiscal policy. The research relied on the hypothesis that tracking the paths of oil shocks had clear repercussions in government budget decisions, which prompted Saudi Arabia to follow appropriate financial methods and means to contain the government budget deficit. One of the main objectives of the research is to show the risks of oil shocks on financial conditions in creating surpluses or deficits in these financial conditions for government budgets, and the research relied on the analytical method to prove its hypothesis to show the trends of these shocks. The research reached a number of results, including that oil is and is still one of the most important drivers of political and economic developments, and many believe that it is the determinant of these developments. Accordingly, the research recommended: to work on diversifying the Saudi economy in order to move from a rentier economy to an economy with strong pillars based on the development of service, agricultural, industrial and production sectors, in order to reduce the severity of negative oil shocks on the Saudi economy, and the need to choose appropriate methods for investment Correct oil revenue.

Abstract

The Iraqi economy relies entirely on oil revenues to meet its needs and plans, highlighting the precariousness of the situation should global oil prices decline for political and economic reasons. Given that oil is a finite resource, it is imperative to pursue economic diversification and leverage all economic sectors as the cornerstone and driving force for building a robust economy and achieving comprehensive development. This necessitates good governance in implementing economic reform programs and exploring strategic alternatives to achieve economic growth. The Iraqi economy possesses alternatives and opportunities for economic diversification and various sources of income. However, it has not fully utilized its diverse natural and agricultural resources, which are crucial for supporting economic growth. Development is not merely about frameworks, institutions, and aspirations; it requires political, economic, social, and cultural prerequisites that must be organized and updated in a gradual and practical manner. It also necessitates addressing internal and external challenges that interact with evolving societal changes. This requires awareness and determination to achieve the desired goals through investment spending, increased productivity, and ultimately, a higher gross national product.

Abstract

يهدف البحث الى معرفة اثر تقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية على الاقتصاد العراقي اذ ان الاقتصاد العراقي اقتصاد ريعي يعتمد بشكل اساسي على النفط وهو اقتصاد احادي الجانب ونتيجة للظروف الاقتصادية والسياسية التي مر بها الواقع الاقتصادي العراقي فانه يعاني من ضعف في بناه التحتية واختلال في هياكله ويعاني من مشاكل عديدة مثل الكساد والتضخم وغيرها من المشاكل التي تؤثر على تطوره وازدهاره، وتعد عوائد النفط المصدر الرئيسي ان لم يكن المصدر الوحيد لتمويل برامج التنمية والانفاق الاستثماري الحكومي مما جعله عرضة للصدمات الخارجية الناتجة عن تقلبات اسعار النفط على المستوى العالمي وان لتطورات اسعار النفط انعكاسات واضحة على الايرادات النفطية فارتفاع اسعار النفط يؤدي الى ارتفاع التدفقات النقدية والذي ينعكس في زيادة مقدرة السلطات المالية على التوسع في الانفاق، ويتضح لنا ان اقتصاد العراقي تأثر ولا زال يتأثر بشكل كبير بالظروف السياسية التي مرت به بل اصبح بكل متغيراته تابع لها وأن لتذبذب وتقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية الاثر الكبير على الاقتصاد العراقي وذلك نتيجة لعدم الاستقرار السياسي والاقتصادي والامني للبلد وتقليص دور القطاعات الاقتصادية الاخرى مثل الزراعة والصناعة والتجارة وان لارتفاع اسعار النفط انعكاسا ايجابيا على اوضاع الموازنة العامة وعلى الاقتصاد العراقي، ويشكل النفط عصب الحياة للاقتصاد العراقي والمصدر الاساسي لتوليد الدخل القومي وتمويل عمليات الاستيراد وبالتالي فان لتقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية الاثر الكبير على الاقتصاد العراقي.

Abstract

The aim of this research is to assess the impact of electronic payments on increasing the volume of deposits in the Iraqi banking sector for the time period (January 2018 – September 2025), using an econometric analytical method that includes descriptive time-series analysis, and estimation of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study uses the indicators of mobile electronic payments and financial transactions processed via the retail payment system (IRPSI) as the independent variables, and the total deposits and current deposits as dependent variables, with the control variables being the money supply, inflation, and oil prices. The results show the gradual growth of the use of electronic payment instruments, especially in terms of the retail payment system, while mobile payments have a limited impact; current deposits are the most significant factor in total deposits. The estimates derived in ARDL show that there is no significant relationship between mobile payments and deposits in the short and long run, while retail payment system transactions have a significant and negative relationship due to its strong relationship with cash withdrawals, particularly cash withdrawals by government salary. The results shown in the control variables indicate that money supply and oil price are important factors in increasing deposits while inflation decreases current deposits because of the loss of purchasing power. Overall, the results indicate that while the electronic payment system is still evolving in Iraq, the use of cash remains at a high level, which necessitates further efforts to boost and reinforce the non-cash payment policy, increase financial and digital awareness, and strengthen the technical systems to promote the efficiency of electronic payment systems and their ability to contribute effectively to the mobilization of deposits within the banking sector.

Abstract

Economic diversification is a major concern for economists and policymakers alike. Various countries strive to achieve the highest levels of economic diversification in their economic programs. Economic diversification is also crucial for poverty reduction in Iraq, particularly through developing and creating job opportunities by expanding the agricultural, industrial, and renewable energy sectors. This study attempts to present an approach to economic diversification policies and addressing and reducing poverty in Iraq, based on theoretical principles from modern economic literature and objective data from the Iraqi economy. This includes examining the phenomenon of poverty, efforts to combat it, and the potential for economic diversification within the general budget and financial system. This forward-looking vision can be used to develop a policy that contributes to economic diversification, thereby mitigating economic fluctuations, achieving stability, increasing economic growth, and eliminating unemployment and, consequently, poverty The research problem adopts the topic that Iraq is one of the quartile countries that depend on a single economic resource, namely oil, to finance public spending. In the event that the macro economy is exposed to external and internal shocks such as the decline in oil prices, in addition to the mortgage crisis, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, this will lead to a state of financial deficit. Therefore, it is better to rely on economic diversification, which does not allow the economy to be subject to sectors that use raw materials, and to expand economic activities, renewable energy, increase competitiveness, and create added value for the economy as a whole, which leads to reducing poverty.

Abstract

This study examined the impact of a rentier economy on the independence of monetary policy in Iraq after 2004, considering Iraq as a rentier state that relies heavily on oil revenues. The study included an analysis of the relationship between the rentier economy and monetary policy, as well as the effects of the rentier economy on the independence of monetary policy. It found that dependence on oil to finance public expenditures leads to a reduction in monetary policy independence.

The results showed that the rentier economy has a significant impact on the independence of monetary policy in Iraq, and that there is a pressing need to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil in order to mitigate the risks arising from fluctuations in oil prices, which affect state revenues. Consequently, when the government faces a deficit, it compels the central bank to adopt an expansionary monetary policy to finance this deficit, which in turn undermines monetary policy independence.

The study reached a number of conclusions and recommendations that the researcher believes are aimed at strengthening the independence of monetary policy in rentier states.

Abstract

The research aims to measure the impact of public budget indicators and institutional quality (the quality of governing institutions in the economy) in reducing public debt for a selected group of Arab countries with renter economies for the period (2002-2023). Two standard models have been built to achieve this goal: The first model focused on measuring the impact of the general budget through its basic indicators represented by public spending and public revenues expressed in tax revenues, with the introduction of the oil price variable as a control variable due to its fundamental importance in explaining the dynamics of public debt in oil economies. The second model focused on measuring the impact of the six institutional quality indicators issued by the World Bank (control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness, rule of law, voice and issue, and regulatory quality) on public debt. Using static analysis of longitudinal data models represented by its three models (pooled regression model, fixed effects model, and random effects model) for eight Arab oil countries, the research reached a set of results: For general budget indicators, the results showed that reducing public spending can contribute to reducing public debt, while there was no significant effect of oil revenues. While for oil prices, they had an impact in reducing public debt. As for institutional quality indicators, the results showed the impact of (political stability, government effectiveness, voice and issue) on reducing public debt, while the results showed that (control of corruption, rule of law, and regulatory quality) contribute to the accumulation of public debt. Therefore, the results of this research confirm the importance of the financial budget and institutional quality in reducing public debt and its sustainability in the long run.

Abstract

Sovereign wealth funds are among the most important financial instruments used by rentier economies to manage financial surpluses generated from the exploitation of natural resources, particularly oil, with the aim of achieving macroeconomic stability and enhancing long-term financial sustainability. The importance of these funds is particularly pronounced in economies characterized by a high degree of dependence on oil revenues, given the cyclical fluctuations these revenues are subject to due to changes in global oil prices. This research aims to conduct a comparative analysis of sovereign wealth fund models in a number of rentier economies. This research also aims to analyze the current state of oil surplus management in Iraq and assess the challenges facing the effective utilization of these surpluses within an institutional and investment framework. The research employs a descriptive, analytical, and comparative approach, analyzing leading international experiences in sovereign wealth fund management and evaluating their potential application in developing a suitable model for the Iraqi economy. Furthermore, the research analyzes the relationship between oil surplus management and economic stability, considering potential future scenarios for global oil markets.

Abstract

Given the growing public debt burden and the volatility of global oil prices — the primary source of budget revenues — this study examines the economic impact of public debt on sustainable development in Iraq from 1990 to 2022. Using modern econometric models and quarterly time series data, the research analyzes the relationship between domestic and external public debt, economic growth, and sustainable development.

The study aims to identify the short- and long-term effects of public debt on growth and sustainability and clarify how oil price volatility affects this relationship. The results indicate that domestic debt has a less negative impact than external debt. While external debt supports expenditures in the short term, it increases long-term risks due to repayment obligations. The results also indicate weak links between high debt and sustainable development outcomes, reflecting the inefficient use of borrowed resources. Heavy reliance on oil revenues exacerbates the economy's vulnerability to external shocks. The study concluded with a set of recommendations: adopt wise debt management strategies; direct borrowing toward productive and developmental sectors; enhance transparency and institutional efficiency; diversify the economy to reduce dependence on oil; and cooperate with international financial institutions to design debt sustainability policies consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Abstract

The banking crisis occurs in the banking system when cash withdrawals from all types of bank accounts by bank customers suddenly rise, that is, when the bank’s or financial institution’s liabilities are greater than financial assets and then its inability to cover the liabilities, then the cash and its equivalents are not guaranteed. The quality of the loan portfolio and the increase in bad loans from it have an impact on the financial position, and for this reason and in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis (2008), the International Accounting Standards Board, in cooperation with international organizations, issued the International Financial Reporting Standard (9) to recalculate the expected credit losses of financial instruments according to scientific grounds To avoid defaulting in debt repayment, the research focused on the challenges facing commercial and Islamic banks in Iraq in implementing the guiding regulations issued by the Central Bank of Iraq, which mandated the application of the standard as of 2019 in light of the capabilities available in those banks.
With the aim of the research to shed light on the requirements of the standard IFRS-9) and procedures for banks in the application of the standard and the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in monitoring banks to ensure that those requirements are met. The research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the timing of the application of the standard is not appropriate due to the circumstances that Iraq is going through, and many commercial activities have stopped due to the outbreak of the Corona virus with the decline in oil prices. 2019 until a later time until the appropriate environment for the application is available

Abstract

Iraq is considered one of the countries most dependent on oil to cover government expenditures and external payments, as it is a rentier economy, lacks a diverse production base, and is unable to develop its revenue sources to achieve comprehensive economic development. In order to lift Iraq out of this deficit and achieve economic diversification and economic growth, it is necessary to expand the capacity to produce and export crude oil, in line with achieving well-being and prosperity. Economic. The growing reliance on this resource has made the Iraqi economy constantly vulnerable to price fluctuations in global oil markets. Hence, the research aimed to analyze the importance of crude oil revenues in supporting Iraqi economic growth for the period (2010-2024). And how it is affected by a number of Influencing factors, oil prices in the international market, and their impact on Iraqi economic activity. One of the most prominent conclusions reached by the researcher is that oil exports play a very important role in increasing the rates of economic development by supporting other economic sectors. The importance of oil lies in its provision of financial savings that are essential for financing economic and social development programmers.

Abstract

The economy faces accumulated challenges, including high unemployment rates, particularly among young people, and the weak contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP, in addition to economic fluctuations related to oil prices. The research problem lies in the structural challenges that the Iraqi economy suffers from, most notably high unemployment rates, weak economic diversification, and excessive dependence on the oil sector, which has negatively affected the sustainability of economic growth. The research aims to demonstrate the role of foreign direct investment in stimulating unemployment and economic growth. The descriptive analytical method was used to reach the research results, which led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that foreign direct investment is one of the important tools for supporting economic growth in Iraq, as it provides capital flows that contribute to increasing productive capacity and improving GDP rates, especially in non-oil productive sectors. It also contributes to creating direct and indirect job opportunities through the establishment of new projects and the expansion of existing activities. The researchers recommend working to improve the investment environment by strengthening political and security stability, simplifying administrative procedures, combating corruption, and developing the legal framework regulating investment in a way that ensures the protection of investors and at the same time achieves the national interest.

Abstract

 In many economic relations, there are correlations between variables that affect each other, including the reciprocal relationship between the budget deficit and exchange rate fluctuations, especially in developing countries, including Iraq, which suffer from problems in the general budget that may be chronic, and this deficit is caused by continuing In increasing public expenditures in exchange for a decrease in public revenues, especially that the Iraqi economy is almost completely dependent on the oil sector, And due to the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the volume of imports, which negatively affected the state’s general budget, the study included three main sections. The first topic represents the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and the public budget deficit, and the second topic is the relationship between the exchange rate and the general budget deficit in Iraq for the period (1990-2019). While the third topic dealt with the standard analysis of the relationship between the two variables mentioned above, the study concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship between the two variables of the model, where the exchange rate is due to a deficit in the public budget in the long term

Abstract

The economy faces accumulated challenges, including high unemployment rates, particularly among young people, and the weak contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP, in addition to economic fluctuations related to oil prices. The research problem lies in the structural challenges that the Iraqi economy suffers from, most notably high unemployment rates, weak economic diversification, and excessive dependence on the oil sector, which has negatively affected the sustainability of economic growth. The research aims to demonstrate the role of foreign direct investment in stimulating unemployment and economic growth. The descriptive analytical method was used to reach the research results, which led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that foreign direct investment is one of the important tools for supporting economic growth in Iraq, as it provides capital flows that contribute to increasing productive capacity and improving GDP rates, especially in non-oil productive sectors. It also contributes to creating direct and indirect job opportunities through the establishment of new projects and the expansion of existing activities. The researchers recommend working to improve the investment environment by strengthening political and security stability, simplifying administrative procedures, combating corruption, and developing the legal framework regulating investment in a way that ensures the protection of investors and at the same time achieves the national interest.

Abstract

The research aims to demonstrate the role of sustainable budget requirements in improving the Iraqi financial situation through the use of a set of requirements to be relied upon when preparing the budget, and to achieve the objectives of the research, a study was conducted of the indicators of the Iraqi economy for the years (2004-2021). A set of conclusions and recommendations were reached, the most prominent of which is that Iraq relies heavily on non-renewable financial resources, and this exposes its economy more to financial crises as a result of fluctuating prices of non-renewable resources. Accordingly, it is necessary to find renewable financial resources that can be relied upon in the event of a recession occurring for non-renewable resources. As a large proportion of Iraq's resources go to pay off debts because of its heavy dependence on these resources, the prices of which fluctuate from one period to another, as happened in the years (2008, 2016, 2020). Therefore, attention must be paid to the requirements of the sustainable budget because of their significant role in reviving the Iraqi financial situation. The research also recommends Iraq's interest in renewable financial resources because it represents an important alternative that can be resorted to in the event of fluctuating oil prices instead of relying on debt.