Search Results for oil-prices
Abstract
The importance of the subject in estimating the impact of sudden oil shocks over decades since the early seventies of the twentieth century until now was the motive in choosing it, and naturally when oil prices are low, this will be reflected in the government's financial decisions. The research problem revolves around dependence on oil revenues mainly and the weakness of other sectors such as agriculture in financing the government budget in Saudi Arabia, which raises the following question: It is to what extent these countries can absorb those oil shocks and contain them through an appropriate fiscal policy. The research relied on the hypothesis that tracking the paths of oil shocks had clear repercussions in government budget decisions, which prompted Saudi Arabia to follow appropriate financial methods and means to contain the government budget deficit. One of the main objectives of the research is to show the risks of oil shocks on financial conditions in creating surpluses or deficits in these financial conditions for government budgets, and the research relied on the analytical method to prove its hypothesis to show the trends of these shocks. The research reached a number of results, including that oil is and is still one of the most important drivers of political and economic developments, and many believe that it is the determinant of these developments. Accordingly, the research recommended: to work on diversifying the Saudi economy in order to move from a rentier economy to an economy with strong pillars based on the development of service, agricultural, industrial and production sectors, in order to reduce the severity of negative oil shocks on the Saudi economy, and the need to choose appropriate methods for investment Correct oil revenue.
Abstract
This study examined the impact of a rentier economy on the independence of monetary policy in Iraq after 2004, considering Iraq as a rentier state that relies heavily on oil revenues. The study included an analysis of the relationship between the rentier economy and monetary policy, as well as the effects of the rentier economy on the independence of monetary policy. It found that dependence on oil to finance public expenditures leads to a reduction in monetary policy independence.
The results showed that the rentier economy has a significant impact on the independence of monetary policy in Iraq, and that there is a pressing need to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil in order to mitigate the risks arising from fluctuations in oil prices, which affect state revenues. Consequently, when the government faces a deficit, it compels the central bank to adopt an expansionary monetary policy to finance this deficit, which in turn undermines monetary policy independence.
The study reached a number of conclusions and recommendations that the researcher believes are aimed at strengthening the independence of monetary policy in rentier states.
Abstract
The research aims to measure the impact of public budget indicators and institutional quality (the quality of governing institutions in the economy) in reducing public debt for a selected group of Arab countries with renter economies for the period (2002-2023). Two standard models have been built to achieve this goal: The first model focused on measuring the impact of the general budget through its basic indicators represented by public spending and public revenues expressed in tax revenues, with the introduction of the oil price variable as a control variable due to its fundamental importance in explaining the dynamics of public debt in oil economies. The second model focused on measuring the impact of the six institutional quality indicators issued by the World Bank (control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness, rule of law, voice and issue, and regulatory quality) on public debt. Using static analysis of longitudinal data models represented by its three models (pooled regression model, fixed effects model, and random effects model) for eight Arab oil countries, the research reached a set of results: For general budget indicators, the results showed that reducing public spending can contribute to reducing public debt, while there was no significant effect of oil revenues. While for oil prices, they had an impact in reducing public debt. As for institutional quality indicators, the results showed the impact of (political stability, government effectiveness, voice and issue) on reducing public debt, while the results showed that (control of corruption, rule of law, and regulatory quality) contribute to the accumulation of public debt. Therefore, the results of this research confirm the importance of the financial budget and institutional quality in reducing public debt and its sustainability in the long run.
Abstract
Given the growing public debt burden and the volatility of global oil prices — the primary source of budget revenues — this study examines the economic impact of public debt on sustainable development in Iraq from 1990 to 2022. Using modern econometric models and quarterly time series data, the research analyzes the relationship between domestic and external public debt, economic growth, and sustainable development.
The study aims to identify the short- and long-term effects of public debt on growth and sustainability and clarify how oil price volatility affects this relationship. The results indicate that domestic debt has a less negative impact than external debt. While external debt supports expenditures in the short term, it increases long-term risks due to repayment obligations. The results also indicate weak links between high debt and sustainable development outcomes, reflecting the inefficient use of borrowed resources. Heavy reliance on oil revenues exacerbates the economy's vulnerability to external shocks. The study concluded with a set of recommendations: adopt wise debt management strategies; direct borrowing toward productive and developmental sectors; enhance transparency and institutional efficiency; diversify the economy to reduce dependence on oil; and cooperate with international financial institutions to design debt sustainability policies consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.
Abstract
The banking crisis occurs in the banking system when cash withdrawals from all types of bank accounts by bank customers suddenly rise, that is, when the bank’s or financial institution’s liabilities are greater than financial assets and then its inability to cover the liabilities, then the cash and its equivalents are not guaranteed. The quality of the loan portfolio and the increase in bad loans from it have an impact on the financial position, and for this reason and in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis (2008), the International Accounting Standards Board, in cooperation with international organizations, issued the International Financial Reporting Standard (9) to recalculate the expected credit losses of financial instruments according to scientific grounds To avoid defaulting in debt repayment, the research focused on the challenges facing commercial and Islamic banks in Iraq in implementing the guiding regulations issued by the Central Bank of Iraq, which mandated the application of the standard as of 2019 in light of the capabilities available in those banks.
With the aim of the research to shed light on the requirements of the standard IFRS-9) and procedures for banks in the application of the standard and the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in monitoring banks to ensure that those requirements are met. The research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the timing of the application of the standard is not appropriate due to the circumstances that Iraq is going through, and many commercial activities have stopped due to the outbreak of the Corona virus with the decline in oil prices. 2019 until a later time until the appropriate environment for the application is available
Abstract
In many economic relations, there are correlations between variables that affect each other, including the reciprocal relationship between the budget deficit and exchange rate fluctuations, especially in developing countries, including Iraq, which suffer from problems in the general budget that may be chronic, and this deficit is caused by continuing In increasing public expenditures in exchange for a decrease in public revenues, especially that the Iraqi economy is almost completely dependent on the oil sector, And due to the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the volume of imports, which negatively affected the state’s general budget, the study included three main sections. The first topic represents the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and the public budget deficit, and the second topic is the relationship between the exchange rate and the general budget deficit in Iraq for the period (1990-2019). While the third topic dealt with the standard analysis of the relationship between the two variables mentioned above, the study concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship between the two variables of the model, where the exchange rate is due to a deficit in the public budget in the long term
Abstract
The research aims to demonstrate the role of sustainable budget requirements in improving the Iraqi financial situation through the use of a set of requirements to be relied upon when preparing the budget, and to achieve the objectives of the research, a study was conducted of the indicators of the Iraqi economy for the years (2004-2021). A set of conclusions and recommendations were reached, the most prominent of which is that Iraq relies heavily on non-renewable financial resources, and this exposes its economy more to financial crises as a result of fluctuating prices of non-renewable resources. Accordingly, it is necessary to find renewable financial resources that can be relied upon in the event of a recession occurring for non-renewable resources. As a large proportion of Iraq's resources go to pay off debts because of its heavy dependence on these resources, the prices of which fluctuate from one period to another, as happened in the years (2008, 2016, 2020). Therefore, attention must be paid to the requirements of the sustainable budget because of their significant role in reviving the Iraqi financial situation. The research also recommends Iraq's interest in renewable financial resources because it represents an important alternative that can be resorted to in the event of fluctuating oil prices instead of relying on debt.
Abstract
يهدف البحث الى معرفة اثر تقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية على الاقتصاد العراقي اذ ان الاقتصاد العراقي اقتصاد ريعي يعتمد بشكل اساسي على النفط وهو اقتصاد احادي الجانب ونتيجة للظروف الاقتصادية والسياسية التي مر بها الواقع الاقتصادي العراقي فانه يعاني من ضعف في بناه التحتية واختلال في هياكله ويعاني من مشاكل عديدة مثل الكساد والتضخم وغيرها من المشاكل التي تؤثر على تطوره وازدهاره، وتعد عوائد النفط المصدر الرئيسي ان لم يكن المصدر الوحيد لتمويل برامج التنمية والانفاق الاستثماري الحكومي مما جعله عرضة للصدمات الخارجية الناتجة عن تقلبات اسعار النفط على المستوى العالمي وان لتطورات اسعار النفط انعكاسات واضحة على الايرادات النفطية فارتفاع اسعار النفط يؤدي الى ارتفاع التدفقات النقدية والذي ينعكس في زيادة مقدرة السلطات المالية على التوسع في الانفاق، ويتضح لنا ان اقتصاد العراقي تأثر ولا زال يتأثر بشكل كبير بالظروف السياسية التي مرت به بل اصبح بكل متغيراته تابع لها وأن لتذبذب وتقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية الاثر الكبير على الاقتصاد العراقي وذلك نتيجة لعدم الاستقرار السياسي والاقتصادي والامني للبلد وتقليص دور القطاعات الاقتصادية الاخرى مثل الزراعة والصناعة والتجارة وان لارتفاع اسعار النفط انعكاسا ايجابيا على اوضاع الموازنة العامة وعلى الاقتصاد العراقي، ويشكل النفط عصب الحياة للاقتصاد العراقي والمصدر الاساسي لتوليد الدخل القومي وتمويل عمليات الاستيراد وبالتالي فان لتقلبات اسعار النفط العالمية الاثر الكبير على الاقتصاد العراقي.