Search Results for nardl-model
Abstract
The issue of monetary policies and their role in achieving economic stability and economic growth aims at price stability as a primary goal, and with the diversity and development of monetary policy tools, it has become an important part of the comprehensive economic policy in countries in general. As a result of the serious negative effects of inflation and its reflection on the economy, economic policy makers worked on using monetary policy tools to address inflation by influencing the supply of money and demand for it in line with a set of economic goals and the prevailing economic conditions in the country concerned. Central banks have adopted the monetary policy tool and their implementation, as the Central Bank of Iraq worked to adopt a set of technical and legislative measures through its monetary tools to achieve stability in the general level of prices. The researcher aims to identify a more effective tool than the monetary policy tools in dealing with inflation in Iraq for the period 1991-2019. The results of the test showed that open market operations had an impact in the current year and the previous year on inflation. The researcher used the tools of modern standard and mathematical tests that would determine Factors affecting inflation, as the study used the NARDL model to separate the negative and positive differences for each variable, and then tested them on the dependent variable, and this is a somewhat modern method in standard tests.
Abstract
This research aims to analyze the asymmetric impact of the Global Innovation Index (GII) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in South Korea over the period (2004–2024). It further explores the potential for adapting this experience within the economies of Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan. Utilizing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study examines the dynamics of this relationship in both the short and long runs. The empirical findings reveal a nonlinear cointegration relationship, indicating that the South Korean economy exhibits hyper-sensitivity toward negative innovation shocks. Specifically, a 1% negative shock in innovation leads to a growth contraction of approximately 1.65%, whereas the growth response to positive shocks does not exceed 0.33%. Furthermore, CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests confirmed the structural stability of the model over two decades. The research concludes that the innovation gap in the studied Arab countries necessitates policies that support innovation budgets to ensure the stability of structural growth parameters, independent of fluctuations in traditional sectors.