Search Results for inflation

Abstract

Public spending is one of the most important tools used by governments to achieve their economic and social goals, studying the relationship between public spending and inflation in Iraq is one of the important and vital topics, especially in light of the challenges facing the Iraqi economy such as oil price fluctuations and thus fluctuations in financial revenues, and the correct public spending management through which inflation rates can be monitored and controlled.

The research aimed to measure and analyze the impact of public spending on inflation in Iraq through the use of modern standard methods where the threshold model was used (Threshold Regression), as the research found that there are four thresholds during the research period, in the first threshold the relationship was positive between public spending and the inflation rate when the inflation rate is less than (3.699%), and that the increase in public spending by one unit It will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.040%) before reaching this threshold, but in the value of the second threshold of inflation and after exceeding the rate of (3.699%), it is less than (4.399%) and that increasing  public spending by one unit will also lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.216%) before reaching this threshold, while the third threshold for the inflation rate after exceeding the rate of (4.399%), which is less than (6.399%) and that Increasing public spending by one unit will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (40.26%) before reaching this threshold, while the fourth and last threshold for an inflation rate is greater than or equal to (6.399%), and that increasing public spending by one unit will lead to an increase in the inflation rate by (0.419%) before reaching this threshold. The research concluded with a number of proposals, the most prominent of which is the need for decision-makers to follow up the levels of public spending carefully at low spending levels. There may not be a significant impact on inflation in the future, and monitoring spending at high levels, there may be a significant impact that requires arbitrary policies to prevent hyperinflation.

Abstract

The decade of the nineties witnessed a great crowding from many developed and developing countries towards adopting the policy of inflation targeting as a modern framework for monetary policy through which the explicit announcement of the target inflation rate and directing all monetary policy tools in order to achieve this rate, the discussion later moved towards the impact of This policy in the rate of growth has topped the headlines of many researches. It is claimed that the failure of this policy to promote growth may bring catastrophic results to any country, especially the developing ones. The aim of the research is to know the extent to which the inflation targeting policy can actually achieve high rates of economic growth in eastern countries Asia taken as a model from Indonesia, based on the premise that: The adoption of inflation targeting reflected positively in growth and enhanced its stability. Targeting inflation and economic growth in Indonesia, while the second side celebrated the use of quantitative analysis tools, starting with the data stability test to enhance research and reach its goal, and then progress See the search form. The data for the research were collected based on the publications of the World Bank, and the research covered the period (1990-2019). The research reached a number of results, the most important of which were: - The inflation targeting framework contributes to supporting the levels of macroeconomic performance through its role in reducing fluctuations in economic growth after the trend of a number of central banks in East Asia to implement that strategy

Abstract

The Iraqi economy has known the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution since the eighties, with the increasing deterioration of the value of the Iraqi dinar and the appearance of signs of rapid inflation. Its actual expansion began with the phase of imposing the economic blockade in the nineties. Despite the decline in inflation rates following the phase of the economic blockade, the political, economic, and security turmoil After 2004, it was negatively affected by high inflation rates, especially during the period (2004-2007), which was reflected in the use of the US dollar as a tool to measure future payments, then a store of value, and then a medium of exchange in transactions that take place locally. Our study attempts to identify the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution in all its meanings and its relationship to inflation. Verifying the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution and determining its reality in the Iraqi economy during the period (2004-2022) In order to achieve the goal, the study adopted the inductive approach in analyzing the phenomenon under study, used the descriptive analysis method, and chose the correlation model to analyze the data and reach the results. After following the International Monetary Fund index in measuring foreign currency substitution represented by dividing deposits in foreign currency by the broad money supply, the study concluded There is a direct relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of foreign currency replacement in the Iraqi economy, with a strong direct correlation rate of (0.70) Therefore, the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution must be taken into consideration and the necessary measures taken to reduce it, especially through policies to stabilize inflation rates at low levels and search for another way to price crude oil instead of the US dollar, and let it be a basket of foreign currencies in order to reduce the linkage of the Iraqi economy to the dollar

Abstract

The issue of monetary policies and their role in achieving economic stability and economic growth aims at price stability as a primary goal, and with the diversity and development of monetary policy tools, it has become an important part of the comprehensive economic policy in countries in general. As a result of the serious negative effects of inflation and its reflection on the economy, economic policy makers worked on using monetary policy tools to address inflation by influencing the supply of money and demand for it in line with a set of economic goals and the prevailing economic conditions in the country concerned. Central banks have adopted the monetary policy tool and their implementation, as the Central Bank of Iraq worked to adopt a set of technical and legislative measures through its monetary tools to achieve stability in the general level of prices. The researcher aims to identify a more effective tool than the monetary policy tools in dealing with inflation in Iraq for the period 1991-2019. The results of the test showed that open market operations had an impact in the current year and the previous year on inflation. The researcher used the tools of modern standard and mathematical tests that would determine Factors affecting inflation, as the study used the NARDL model to separate the negative and positive differences for each variable, and then tested them on the dependent variable, and this is a somewhat modern method in standard tests.

Abstract

The research aims to test the effect of the foreign direct investment rate, inflation rate, government spending rate, population growth, GDP growth, the degree of trade openness, and the corruption risk index on the youth unemployment rate in African countries. Although youth unemployment rates in African countries are not among the highest rates in the world, it remains a problem that requires serious consideration in addressing it as it is considered a major factor in political instability. The research adopted the method of multiple linear regression and panel data for the period 1990-2019 for sixteen African countries for which the required data for the research were available: Zimbabwe, Uganda, Rwanda, Niger, Senegal, Mozambique, Nigeria, Central Africa, Tanzania, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Kenya Angola, Cameroon. It was concluded that foreign direct investment ratio was negatively affects the youth unemployment rate. While the effect of government spending, population growth and corruption risk index (decreased risk of corruption) was positive. No significant effect of economic growth, inflation rate, and trade openness has been demonstrated on the youth unemployment rate in African countries.

Abstract

The aim of the research is to identify the external determinants of the performance of the banking sector, represented by growth rate in gross domestic product (GGDP) and inflation (I), and the internal determinants represented by size (S), operational efficiency (OE) and financial intermediation (FM) for the period (1996 to 2017), in some of the Arabic countries represented by (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates). To reach this goal, cross-sectional time-series models (Pooled regression model, fixed effects model, random effects model) were used. These models were compared using the restricted F test and Hausman's test, and it was found that the random effects model is the appropriate model to represent the relationship between the research variables.The results of the research revealed that there was no effect of the external determinants (growth in GDP and inflation) and financial intermediation as one of the internal determinants on the performance of banking sectors, expressed in return on capital (ROE), because the relationship between these variables was not significant, in addition to the existence of a negative impact of a significant indication of the volume on the performance of the banking sectors and a positive impact with a significant effect of the operational efficiency on the performance of that sector. The research recommended the necessity for the supervisory and supervisory authorities to pay special attention to size and operational efficiency for their clear impact on the performance of the banking sectors, the research sample.

Abstract

This research aims to highlight the role of macro-economic variables in achieving economic growth in Iraq, relying on the Eviews10 program.  The results of the research showed an inverse relationship between the net foreign operations in the inflation rate, the broad money supply, the long term, with the gross domestic product, and a direct relationship between each of the net foreign operations.  In the short term, the broad money supply with the gross domestic product, and a direct relationship between the broad money supply, the exchange rate, the budget deficit in the two terms, with the gross domestic product.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between financial liberalization policy and its impact on economic growth in Iraq, spanning the Period 2004-2023. Drawing on a combination of time-series econometric analysis and policy review, the research examines key dimensions of liberalization, including interest rate deregulation, capital account openness, and banking sector reform. The findings reveal a nuanced relationship: a long-term, positive relationship between the indicators (the basic interest rate, the ratio of domestic credit provided to the private sector to GDP, and inflation) and GDP in Iraq during the study period. Meanwhile, the long-term relationship was negative, as indicated by the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP. Therefore, Iraq's economic policy needs to promote greater liberalization of foreign direct investment. It is also important to adopt a balanced monetary policy that helps control inflation rates and interest rates, thus activating its positive role in financial liberalization policy 

Abstract

The paper aimed to measure the impact of total banking risks and indicate the extent of their impact on economic stability for the period 2004-2021 using the bounds test. Two independent variables were identified to represent banking risks, namely (the ratio of non-performing loans to the total loans, the ratio of non-performing loans to the total capital), as well as Choosing some macroeconomic stability indicators as dependent variables: (bank capital, inflation, net trade balance ratio, net budget ratio, foreign reserves, banking concentration, standard of living). By increasing inflation rates, there is a negative impact of non-performing loans on the total loans and banking spread, as the high default rate of loans leads to a decline in the rate of banking prevalence, and there is a negative impact of non-performing loans on the total loans on the standard of living, as the high default rate of loans leads to To a decline in the average standard of living as a result of not granting loans to the population, and the research recommended that a study of the case of borrowers be considered before granting credit in order to reduce the default rate in loans by providing some guarantees to the banker, the need to use the indicator of the ratio of non-performing loans to total capital as one of the risks Banking that has an impact on the financial soundness of the bank, through what the sum of non-performing loans represents to the capital owned by the bank, and thus gives a clear vision of the capital owned by the bank

Abstract

The research evaluated the performance of the Iraqi economy for the period 1991-2021, and the extent of the success of the fiscal and monetary policies in achieving the desired goals, by analyzing the developments that occurred in the main macroeconomic variables included in the Kaldor square (economic growth rate, foreign trade balance, inflation rate, Unemployment rate), and an attempt to determine the causes of these developments and the circumstances surrounding them, and then compare them with the optimal goals specified in the Kaldor square to show the extent to which they have been achieved. The research was based on the hypothesis that the macroeconomic performance in Iraq during the aforementioned period is far from the possibility of achieving the combined goals of the Kaldor square, and even if they were partially achieved, they would not be economically meaningful. To complete the research steps, the descriptive analytical method was adopted to study and analyze the developments that occurred in the variables under study. Among the challenges that the researcher faced during the study was the scarcity or inaccuracy of data related to the case study. The researcher reached a number of conclusions, the most prominent of which was proving the validity of the research hypothesis. The most prominent recommendations were the necessity of diversifying the economy and reducing dependence on oil, as well as reconsidering the central bank’s policy to achieve price stability by taking the competitiveness of local products into account.

Abstract

The aim of the research is to study the impact of some macroeconomic variables in China represented by investment with local capital , foreign investment, Gross Domestic Products(GDP) , rate of inflation and economic growth rate and the exchange rate in dollars in foreign trade represented by exports and imports, (Industry and services) for the period 2000-2019, by adopting standard analysis where the gradual multiple linear regression was analyzed of the role of some variables in the economy in the growth of Foreign Trade Ministry in China during the time period above. The research reached the following results:
(1)-There is a significant indicative role for the two variables of investment in domestic capital and foreign investment in the development of foreign trade movement. (2)-There is no significant indicative role for the exchange rate variation, the rate of inflation, and economic growth in the development of foreign trade. (3)-There is a significant indicative role for the variable (GDP )in the development of the movement of Foreign trade in China, if it is adapted independently away from the suggested changes in the research, as its impact is clear on China imports and then exports.(4)-There is an investment increase in domestic capital and foreign trade movement in China.(5)-There is relative stability in foreign investment.(6)-There is a decline in the rate of economic growth to the (GDP) between 2000- 2019 as well as the exchange rate of the dollar against the Chinese Yuan. And the research presented several proposals, including the importance of studying the impact of foreign trade from exports, imports, by sector: industrial, agricultural, medical, technology, and the role of the foreign trade in China in the world countries’ economies, especially the European Union and UAS.

Abstract

The United Arab Emirates has established a distinguished economic and social model characterized by its ability to keep pace with rapid technological and digital transformations, as well as its continuous expansion in investment and development activities. Despite this progress, the UAE remains vulnerable to fluctuations resulting from global economic crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a substantial impact on financial markets, liquidity levels, and capital mobility.

  This study examines the structural characteristics of the UAE economy and its development policies through key macroeconomic indicators, namely gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the public debt ratio. It then analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the UAE banking system by focusing on Emirates NBD Bank and First Abu Dhabi Bank, based on selected financial indicators, including net profit, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE).                                                                                          

              Among the most important conclusions reached by the study is that the COVID-19 crisis revealed the resilience and efficiency of the UAE banking sector in dealing with the pandemic and achieving an early recovery. This resilience contributed to financial stability and superior profitability for both banks. However, the pace and nature of recovery differed between the two institutions. Emirates NBD Bank achieved the highest levels of profitability and return on assets, while First Abu Dhabi Bank maintained steady growth, reflecting the adoption of a long-term risk management strategy. This diversity in banks’ policies contributes to the creation of a balanced banking system capable of effectively coping with crisis.                                                                          

           As for the key recommendations, the study emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of the banking sector in raising public awareness, as well as monitoring the damages suffered by customers in the aftermath of crises, giving due consideration to their interests, and ensuring the protection of their rights through a comprehensive set of regulatory and supportive measures.     

Abstract

The syudy aims to analyses the impact of the foreign exchange window on the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar for the period 2003-2021. rentier economies that suffer from inefficient traditional channels for the transfer of monetary policy to the real sector due to their disrupted economic structure and heavy dependence on imports to meet domestic demand apply direct instruments such as the foreign exchange window. the exchange rate is a critical tool used by the monetary authority to maintain price stability and target inflation. the foreign exchange sale window is an effective mean of directly affecting the exchange rate and is an interim tool for crossing a transitional period and ensuring monetary stability during this period. the research concluded that the foreign exchange window affects the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar and this effect was uneven during the study period. the results of the study showed that the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar responded to the monetary authoritys porcedures of employing part of the reserves to maintain its stability during the period 2003-2010 while the period 2011-2020 showed a weak response to the central bank interventions and thus higher gap between the nominal and parallel exchange rate.

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of the devaluation of Iraqi dinar in stimulating the gross domestic product, after the devaluation of Iraqi dinar at the end of 2020. In this context, empirical studies and international experiences have been used. Taking into consideration the rentier economy in Iraq and the dependence of the local market on imported goods in order to meet the aggregate demand.
The paper relies on official data and methods of economic analysis. The research problem represented by the weak effectiveness of the previous exchange rate policy in stimulating output and diversifying the Iraqi economy, as well as sacrificing foreign reserves and directing them towards the non-productive commercial sector.
The research concluded that stimulating the GDP through devaluation of Iraqi currency requires the availability of supportive and prudent fiscal and trade policies in the medium and long term. The paper recommends addressing the short-term inflationary effects created by a policy of devaluation of the exchange rate

Abstract

The economic misery index is one of the indicators that are used to determine the extent of the bad or quality of the overall economic performance and the extent of the economic well-being of the citizens of the country. Iraq due to the economic conditions that the country is exposed to, which was reflected in the time periods included in the study of the misery index in the Iraqi economy. One of the most important findings of the research is that the Iraqi economy went through two important stages during the study period extending from 1990 to 2018 in measuring the economic misery index, as it witnessed fluctuation in these stages between rise and fall due to the economic conditions that the Iraqi economy went through from siege and war. And the state is able to reduce the causes of this problem by working to reduce the rates of economic misery by creating a clear economic vision for the advancement of the Iraqi economy to achieve the well-being of all members of Iraqi society and improve their quality of life.

Abstract

As a result of the transformation process that the Iraqi economy witnessed after 2003 towards the application of the market economy mechanism in line with the developments witnessed by the global economy in application of the policy of openness, which contributed to the emergence of the phenomenon of commercial dumping, which caused severe effects on the main sectors of the Iraqi economy (agricultural and industrial), which led to an increase  Inflation and unemployment rates and the increase in the tendency to consume, which is reflected in the increase in the volume of Iraqi imports after 2003 in the absence of legislation and laws that protect national products and regulate import operations as a result of the apparent weakness in the control bodies and the absence of the development plan for finding solutions to reduce the effects of the phenomenon of trade dumping

Abstract

The issue of international sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear program is one of the thorny and complex issues due to the differing positions of the countries of the region on the Iranian nuclear program and on the relations between Iran and the countries of the region, as well as the position of the United States of America, the most influential power in the file of this program.

The economic sanctions on Iran prompted the latter to continue its nuclear program and return to the arms race in many different forms and manifestations, but this led to a decline in Iran’s economic capabilities, especially its financial ones, and a restriction on Iranian oil production as it constitutes the main and important resource along with gas in running the wheel of the energy economy, and a decrease in Iranian oil production. Economic growth and oil exports declined despite Iran adopting the so-called resistance economy or war economy based on smuggling. Iran also faces major political and security challenges in light of the risks surrounding it, in addition to increasing interference in its internal affairs due to the increasing number of expatriate workers in its societies. The pretext of labor-exporting countries to provide them with protection and incite political and religious conflicts, not to mention the fear of the outbreak of a direct military confrontation, which portends a humanitarian catastrophe with undesirable consequences. The most prominent results were the impact of international economic sanctions on the gross and real domestic product, economic development, and the high rate of inflation and unemployment, which made The Iranian economy is vulnerable to structural imbalances and the loss of its role in global economic activities.

Abstract

This paper examined the channels by which the effect of monetary policy is transmitted to macroeconomics in Iraq using one of the dynamic random general equilibrium models (DSGE, smets and wouters 2007). The study shows a general equilibrium model and analyzes precisely the channels of impact transmission and their effects, via a range of instruments used by the monetary authority through the mechanism of transmission of the effect of Iraqi monetary policy to some macroeconomic variables. This is illustrated by inflation targeting through the nominal fixed (exchange rate) through the foreign currency sale window , and the reason for using the exchange rate as a nominal constant is due to the financial shallowness suffered by the Iraqi economy and the separation of monetary behavior from the real behavior in the economy, as well as the absence of focus on a direction to the potential output (the level of natural unemployment rate), which led to the weakness of the impact of the Iraqi central tools in macroeconomic variables without monetary variables, and the research reached the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel without other channels to transmit the impact of monetary policy to the macroeconomic variables in Iraq, and this is what made the monetary authority stick to a policy The window of selling foreign currency for its ability to control liquidity levels and sterilize the economy from the undisciplined economic policies of the macroeconomic management partners in Iraq.