Search Results for exchange-rate
Abstract
This research deals with the complex relationship between fiscal policy tools and exchange rate policy in Iraq. Where the exchange rate is one of the important economic indicators that reflect the state of economic stability of the state, and is greatly affected by changes in fiscal policy, especially in light of excessive dependence on oil revenues and fluctuations in global prices, hence the problem of the study stems from the challenges faced by the Iraqi economy due to its great dependence on oil revenues, which leads to fluctuations in the exchange rate The study seeks to answer how different fiscal policy tools affect exchange rate policy. The study found that public revenues, which rely heavily on oil, play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate. Public spending, whether current or investment, also affects the value of the local currency, as the rise in current spending can lead to inflationary pressures, which increases exchange rate fluctuations, and the impact of both the public budget and public debt on exchange rate policy, as it appears that the fiscal deficit and high public debt can lead to Pressure on the local currency. The study emphasizes the importance of economic diversification and increasing non-oil revenues to ensure the stability of the exchange rate.
Abstract
The syudy aims to analyses the impact of the foreign exchange window on the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar for the period 2003-2021. rentier economies that suffer from inefficient traditional channels for the transfer of monetary policy to the real sector due to their disrupted economic structure and heavy dependence on imports to meet domestic demand apply direct instruments such as the foreign exchange window. the exchange rate is a critical tool used by the monetary authority to maintain price stability and target inflation. the foreign exchange sale window is an effective mean of directly affecting the exchange rate and is an interim tool for crossing a transitional period and ensuring monetary stability during this period. the research concluded that the foreign exchange window affects the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar and this effect was uneven during the study period. the results of the study showed that the exchange rate of the iraqi dinar responded to the monetary authoritys porcedures of employing part of the reserves to maintain its stability during the period 2003-2010 while the period 2011-2020 showed a weak response to the central bank interventions and thus higher gap between the nominal and parallel exchange rate.
Abstract
Foreign trade is one of the basic sectors of any country's economy. It is of great importance in developing economic relations between countries worldwide, especially developed and developing countries, through the import and export of goods and services, both visible and invisible, and the movement of capital and gold trading. Foreign trade activities are usually carried out through the mechanism of linking the exchange rate of the local currency to foreign currencies. The importance of this study lies in highlighting the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. These fluctuations directly affect the economy in general and the costs of importing goods and services in particular. This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi imports for the period 2004–2023. To achieve the study objective, the study relied on time series data and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables in the long and short term. The study found a statistically significant positive relationship at the 5% level between the exchange rate and imports in the long term, which means that the rise in exchange rates in Iraq led to an increase in the volume of imports during the study period. based on these results, the study recommends the need to create a stable economic environment for the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, in addition to strengthening the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in controlling the official and parallel exchange rates to limit their negative impact on the increase in consumer imports.
Abstract
In many economic relations, there are correlations between variables that affect each other, including the reciprocal relationship between the budget deficit and exchange rate fluctuations, especially in developing countries, including Iraq, which suffer from problems in the general budget that may be chronic, and this deficit is caused by continuing In increasing public expenditures in exchange for a decrease in public revenues, especially that the Iraqi economy is almost completely dependent on the oil sector, And due to the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the volume of imports, which negatively affected the state’s general budget, the study included three main sections. The first topic represents the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and the public budget deficit, and the second topic is the relationship between the exchange rate and the general budget deficit in Iraq for the period (1990-2019). While the third topic dealt with the standard analysis of the relationship between the two variables mentioned above, the study concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship between the two variables of the model, where the exchange rate is due to a deficit in the public budget in the long term
Abstract
The aim of the research is to study the impact of some macroeconomic variables in China represented by investment with local capital , foreign investment, Gross Domestic Products(GDP) , rate of inflation and economic growth rate and the exchange rate in dollars in foreign trade represented by exports and imports, (Industry and services) for the period 2000-2019, by adopting standard analysis where the gradual multiple linear regression was analyzed of the role of some variables in the economy in the growth of Foreign Trade Ministry in China during the time period above. The research reached the following results:
(1)-There is a significant indicative role for the two variables of investment in domestic capital and foreign investment in the development of foreign trade movement. (2)-There is no significant indicative role for the exchange rate variation, the rate of inflation, and economic growth in the development of foreign trade. (3)-There is a significant indicative role for the variable (GDP )in the development of the movement of Foreign trade in China, if it is adapted independently away from the suggested changes in the research, as its impact is clear on China imports and then exports.(4)-There is an investment increase in domestic capital and foreign trade movement in China.(5)-There is relative stability in foreign investment.(6)-There is a decline in the rate of economic growth to the (GDP) between 2000- 2019 as well as the exchange rate of the dollar against the Chinese Yuan. And the research presented several proposals, including the importance of studying the impact of foreign trade from exports, imports, by sector: industrial, agricultural, medical, technology, and the role of the foreign trade in China in the world countries’ economies, especially the European Union and UAS.
Abstract
The paper examines the impact of the devaluation of Iraqi dinar in stimulating the gross domestic product, after the devaluation of Iraqi dinar at the end of 2020. In this context, empirical studies and international experiences have been used. Taking into consideration the rentier economy in Iraq and the dependence of the local market on imported goods in order to meet the aggregate demand.
The paper relies on official data and methods of economic analysis. The research problem represented by the weak effectiveness of the previous exchange rate policy in stimulating output and diversifying the Iraqi economy, as well as sacrificing foreign reserves and directing them towards the non-productive commercial sector.
The research concluded that stimulating the GDP through devaluation of Iraqi currency requires the availability of supportive and prudent fiscal and trade policies in the medium and long term. The paper recommends addressing the short-term inflationary effects created by a policy of devaluation of the exchange rate
Abstract
This paper examined the channels by which the effect of monetary policy is transmitted to macroeconomics in Iraq using one of the dynamic random general equilibrium models (DSGE, smets and wouters 2007). The study shows a general equilibrium model and analyzes precisely the channels of impact transmission and their effects, via a range of instruments used by the monetary authority through the mechanism of transmission of the effect of Iraqi monetary policy to some macroeconomic variables. This is illustrated by inflation targeting through the nominal fixed (exchange rate) through the foreign currency sale window , and the reason for using the exchange rate as a nominal constant is due to the financial shallowness suffered by the Iraqi economy and the separation of monetary behavior from the real behavior in the economy, as well as the absence of focus on a direction to the potential output (the level of natural unemployment rate), which led to the weakness of the impact of the Iraqi central tools in macroeconomic variables without monetary variables, and the research reached the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel without other channels to transmit the impact of monetary policy to the macroeconomic variables in Iraq, and this is what made the monetary authority stick to a policy The window of selling foreign currency for its ability to control liquidity levels and sterilize the economy from the undisciplined economic policies of the macroeconomic management partners in Iraq.
Abstract
The research aimed to measure the negative impact of monetary shocks on the capital adequacy of the Iraqi banking sector for the period 2004-2022 using the Threshold Regression Model. The results of the research showed that there is an impact of the variables of monetary shocks (money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, index number). (prices) on the (banking sector capital adequacy) index. The most important findings of the research are that the banking sector capital adequacy at the threshold is less than 2.8984929 trillion. There was a positive impact of the money supply shock on the banking sector capital adequacy. However, when capital The banking sector is confined between 7.6688449 and 2.8984929, so the effect of the money supply shock on the capital adequacy of the banking sector is positive. However, in the third system, when the capital threshold is less than 11.73928 and greater than 7.6628449, there was a negative effect for both (the interest rate shock and the supply shock) at a significant level. 5%, while there was a significant positive effect of the exchange rate shock, and in the fourth system at the capital threshold greater than or equal to 11.73928, there was a negative effect of the price index shock at a significant level of 5%, while here there was a significant positive effect for both (the interest rate shock and the money supply).
Abstract
The study aimed to analyze indicators of financial discipline and measure the effects of those indicators on monetary stability in the Iraqi economy, based on quarterly data for a time series for the period (2004-2020), through the use of cointegration methodology and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) after Performing a time series quiescence test (KPSS). A long and positive relationship between indicators of financial discipline (debt ratio to GDP, foreign reserves and money supply to GDP) and monetary stability. The study recommended the need to adhere to the rules of financial discipline to maintain the exchange rate by increasing the domestic production base, increasing non-oil exports and reducing dependence on the currency selling window that drains foreign reserves, as well as the need to switch to (E-government), which aims to achieve financial discipline within the country, Enhancing the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and enhancing the competitiveness of non-oil sectors such as industry and agriculture in increasing Iraqi exports.
Abstract
The research aims to clarify the influence exerted by strategic alliances and its dimensions represented by (value chain partnership, licensing arrangement, joint projects, mutual service union) on strategic shocks and its dimensions represented by (the industrial environment factor (exchange rate fluctuation), the institutional environmental factor (Soft budget constraints are offset by hard one), the company's capabilities (low versus high leverage) and the relationship between them, and the researched field was the contracting companies operating in the city of Mosul (listed within the Iraqi Contractors Union/Ninawa branch), which were chosen to conduct the applied aspect of the research, and the electronic questionnaire was distributed to The researched field was conducted via the WhatsApp application for contractors working in the city of Mosul, and (98) responses were obtained via the electronic link prepared for this purpose. The research community consisted of general managers of contracting companies. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted in the research, and statistical software (spss) was employed. v.27) for statistical analysis of the collected data, and the most prominent results were the presence of an inverse relationship between both strategic alliances and strategic shocks, and there is also a significant effect between strategic alliances on strategic shocks.
Abstract
This research aims to highlight the role of macro-economic variables in achieving economic growth in Iraq, relying on the Eviews10 program. The results of the research showed an inverse relationship between the net foreign operations in the inflation rate, the broad money supply, the long term, with the gross domestic product, and a direct relationship between each of the net foreign operations. In the short term, the broad money supply with the gross domestic product, and a direct relationship between the broad money supply, the exchange rate, the budget deficit in the two terms, with the gross domestic product.