Search Results for Ahmed Mahmoud
Abstract
The Iraqi economy has known the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution since the eighties, with the increasing deterioration of the value of the Iraqi dinar and the appearance of signs of rapid inflation. Its actual expansion began with the phase of imposing the economic blockade in the nineties. Despite the decline in inflation rates following the phase of the economic blockade, the political, economic, and security turmoil After 2004, it was negatively affected by high inflation rates, especially during the period (2004-2007), which was reflected in the use of the US dollar as a tool to measure future payments, then a store of value, and then a medium of exchange in transactions that take place locally. Our study attempts to identify the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution in all its meanings and its relationship to inflation. Verifying the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution and determining its reality in the Iraqi economy during the period (2004-2022) In order to achieve the goal, the study adopted the inductive approach in analyzing the phenomenon under study, used the descriptive analysis method, and chose the correlation model to analyze the data and reach the results. After following the International Monetary Fund index in measuring foreign currency substitution represented by dividing deposits in foreign currency by the broad money supply, the study concluded There is a direct relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of foreign currency replacement in the Iraqi economy, with a strong direct correlation rate of (0.70) Therefore, the phenomenon of foreign currency substitution must be taken into consideration and the necessary measures taken to reduce it, especially through policies to stabilize inflation rates at low levels and search for another way to price crude oil instead of the US dollar, and let it be a basket of foreign currencies in order to reduce the linkage of the Iraqi economy to the dollar
Abstract
This paper aim aims to predict the quantities of water needed in the city of Baghdad for the next 10 months. This paper focuses on potable water, based on the time series data of the water consumption phenomenon in the city, which was obtained from the Ministry of Water Resources, specifically the Baghdad Water Department. Statistical forecasting techniques were used on the monthly water consumption data for the city of January 2014 until May (2024, a total of 125 months, and that is Baghdad in the period from to reach an estimate of the quantities needed by the city of Baghdad in the future. Curve Estimation and Linear Regression forecasting techniques were used, such as linear regression analysis and the Box - Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology, to obtain the best water consumption model in the city of Baghdad and the most accurate. In This paper we concluded that it is the best model suitable for predicting monthly water consumption in Baghdad city is (3,1,1) ARIMA among the models proposed in the Box-Jenkins methodology in terms of accuracy measures and (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) which reached (2.44-MAPE).While the (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for the Simple Linear (MAPE=8) Quadratic Regression model and the Quadratic Regression model were also found, the research concluded that monthly consumption will increase in the city of Baghdad, when compared to Between the actual values and the predictive values of the methods used in the paper to predict the future. Finally, it is recommended to take the necessary measures to limit water consumption in the city, through pricing, awareness, education, intermittent supplies and other measures that preserve water resources and achieve sustainability.